Month: September 2017

    Horacio Pozzo

    It does click herein order to acquire the Course. In the last months, we have been present at a recovery in the real estate market. The prices of the houses have raised in July by third consecutive month, the requests of mortgages reached in the month of September their maximum in four months by the fall in the interest rates and the inventory of houses has been reduced. The requests of loans to even buy a house, an advanced indicator of the sales, it has raised in September the greater level from beginnings of January. It pretends but it is not the real thing in the real estate market. The aid that received the buyers (with a credit of US$ 8,000 for a first buyer) that will extend until the month of November, maintain a demand without solid foundations. The weakness of the labor market with a leisure that follows in growth and the persistent problems in the American financial system is elements that anticipate a reversion in the behavior of a real estate demand that will follow suspended.

    Part of the problems that exist from the side of the demand in the American real estate market, stays still hidden generating a risk latent of new episodes of crisis. According to a report of the banking regulators, more than half of indebted hypothecating with credits renegotiated in first half of the last year, they later observe a delay of at least two months in the payment of its quotas a year. For the next months great losses in the credits do not discard real estate commercial that puts in jams to the American organizations financial, leaving in clearly in addition, that this segment of the real estate sector far is of its recovery. And while the number of houses without selling would have touched bottom, the prices would be on the verge of falling still more, increasing the pressure on the economy again. For the economist Robert Shiller of Yale University, the perspective are still more dark.

    Shiller that outside one of that it anticipated the crisis in the American real estate market, foretold that the prices of the houses will delay time in recovering enough. Although the programs of stimulus and the plan of purchase of assets of the EDF have contributed to maintain the prices of the houses, the same, as we would mention previously, will finish in just a short time reason why the market will lose forces. Neither in the sky, nor in hell. The American economy in particular, and the global economy generally, still are in purgatorio, cleaning their faults of a crisis that not yet has finished. Prudence would have more to be the mentioned word in this end of the recession. If they want it to the markets to avoid, from the governments one would be due to implement with concrete measures. In addition, the fragilities and risks that still persist must be monitored close by and having predicted plans of emergencia to respond to possible new episodes of crisis. Will be able to be consolidated the recovery or the excess of optimism will take to new relapses?

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    Economic Conjuncture

    Other managers of Bottoms, Societies of Risk capital, etc, more aggressive. they tried to obtain, at all costs, yields more discharges, among others reasons because those gentlemen receive bonus of end of year based on the obtained yield. Problem: How to sell MBS of the bad ones to these last managers without one notices excessively that they are incurring excessive risks? 6 Commentary: The complicated thing and, by all means, those of the Savings bank of San Quirze continue doing declarations in Expansion happy and contentments, speaking of the good march of the economy and Social Obra that are doing. Some Investment banks obtained, of the Agencies of Rating a re-qualification (a re-rating, palabro that does not exist, but that serves to understand to us) the re-rating is an invention to raise the rating of the bad MBS, that consists of: i. To structure them in sections, to which they call tranches to them, ordering, from largest to smallest, the probability of a non-payment, and with the commitment to prioritize the payment to less bad. That is to say: I buy a package of MBS, in which they say to me that the three first MBS are relatively good, the three seconds, very regular and the three third parties, frankly bad. This means that I have structured the package of MBS in three tranches: the relatively good one, the very regular and very bad one.

    I commit myself to that if does not pay anybody of tranche very bad (or as these gentlemen, if the bad section I incur default), but collection say something of tranche very regular and enough of the relatively good, everything will pay the mortgages of tranche relatively good, and so, automatically, this tranche could be described as AAA.

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